Expected goals (xG) estimates how likely a shot is to become a goal, based on position, angle, body part and type of play. A penalty usually has an xG of around 0.76, while a long-range shot from outside the box is worth only about 0.03.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A team’s total xG in a match shows how many goals it \u201cdeserved\u201d to score. A side that wins 1\u20130 with an xG of 0.4 against its opponent’s 2.1 was probably lucky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n xG does not account for the skill of the shooter or the goalkeeper, and a single match is far too small a sample. Look at xG over 8\u201310 games to spot a trend.<\/p>\n\n\n xG measures chance quality, not goals scored. Understanding it properly helps you judge a team’s true form.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":698,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mfd3_reviewer":0,"_mfd3_trending":true,"footnotes":"","_mfd_ml_orig":"en_US"},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-794","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis-stats"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/score-goal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/794","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/score-goal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/score-goal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/score-goal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/score-goal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=794"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/score-goal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/794\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1159,"href":"https:\/\/score-goal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/794\/revisions\/1159"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/score-goal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/698"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/score-goal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=794"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/score-goal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=794"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/score-goal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=794"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Situation<\/th> Typical xG<\/th><\/tr><\/thead> Penalty<\/td> \u2248 0,76<\/td><\/tr> Header inside the six-yard box<\/td> \u2248 0,30<\/td><\/tr> Central footed shot inside the box<\/td> \u2248 0,15<\/td><\/tr> Long shot from outside the box<\/td> \u2248 0,03<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n The limits of xG<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Frequently asked questions about xG<\/h2>
Does a high xG guarantee a win?<\/h3><\/i><\/span><\/summary>
Where can I find xG?<\/h3><\/i><\/span><\/summary>