Expected goals (xG) explained simply
Expected goals (xG) estimates how likely a shot is to become a goal, based on position, angle, body part and type of play. A penalty usually has an xG of around 0.76, while a long-range shot from outside the box is worth only about 0.03.
Adding up xG over a match
A team’s total xG in a match shows how many goals it “deserved” to score. A side that wins 1–0 with an xG of 0.4 against its opponent’s 2.1 was probably lucky.
| Situation | Typical xG |
|---|---|
| Penalty | ≈ 0,76 |
| Header inside the six-yard box | ≈ 0,30 |
| Central footed shot inside the box | ≈ 0,15 |
| Long shot from outside the box | ≈ 0,03 |
The limits of xG
xG does not account for the skill of the shooter or the goalkeeper, and a single match is far too small a sample. Look at xG over 8–10 games to spot a trend.
Frequently asked questions about xG
Does a high xG guarantee a win?
No. xG describes chance quality; the result still depends on finishing and luck.
Where can I find xG?
Many data providers publish xG after the match; the stats tables on the match page show it whenever the data source provides it.
